Assessing the Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Gastric Cancer Mortality Risk.

BACKGROUND: The global impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on public health has been significant. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy for screening and diagnosis decreased along with new gastric cancer (GC) diagnoses. METHODS: This study assesses how the pandemic affected GC mortality using data from Hiroshima Prefecture, comparing mortality rates between patients diagnosed during the pandemic (2020 and 2021) and pre-pandemic (2018 and 2019) periods. The crude hazard ratios (HRs) and HRs adjusted for age, sex, clinical stage, treatment status, and travel distance to the nearest GC screening facility were estimated using Cox regression models. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were also performed. RESULTS: A total of 9571 patients were diagnosed, with 4877 eligible for follow-up. The median age was 74 years, and 69% were male. The median follow-up period was 157 days, with events per 1000 person-years at 278 and 374 in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods, respectively (crude HR, 1.37; adjusted HR, 1.17). The sensitivity and subgroup analyses yielded consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic increased mortality risk in patients with GC. Further studies are required to observe long-term outcomes and identify the disparities contributing to the increased mortality risk.

Fine Particulate Matter and Diabetes Prevalence in Okayama, Japan.

Many studies have shown an association between long-term exposure to particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) and diabetes mellitus (DM), but few studies have focused on Asian subjects. We thus examined the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and DM prevalence in Okayama City, Japan. We included 76,591 participants who had received basic health checkups in 2006 and 2007. We assigned the census-level modeled PM2.5 data from 2006 and 2007 to each participant and defined DM using treatment status and the blood testing. PM2.5 was associated with DM prevalence, and the prevalence ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.10 (1.00-1.20) following each interquartile range increase (2.1 µg/m3) in PM2.5. This finding is consistent with previous results and suggests that long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with an increased prevalence of DM in Okayama City, Japan, where the PM2.5 level is lower than in other cities in Asian countries.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality among patients with colorectal cancer in Hiroshima, Japan: A large cancer registry study.

BACKGROUND: This retrospective cohort study aimed to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer care and mortality using a large cancer registry in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. The study aimed to estimate the all-cause mortality rates within 1 year of diagnosis among colorectal cancer patients diagnosed during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared to those diagnosed during the pre-pandemic period (2018 and 2019). METHODS: The day of diagnosis was set as Day 0 and Cox regression models were utilized to estimate crude hazard ratios (HRs) and adjusted HRs, accounting for age, sex, cancer stage, and treatment status. Two sensitivity analyses of overall survival were performed with different cutoffs of the pre-pandemic/pandemic periods and year-to-year comparisons. Subgroup analyses were performed using likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: A total of 15,085 colorectal cancer patients were included, with 6499 eligible for follow-up. A median age of included patients was 72 years old, of which 59% were male. The distribution of cancer stages showed little variation between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. With a median follow-up of 177 days, the number of events was 316/3111 (173 events per 1000 person-years [E/1000PY], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 154-192 E/1000PY) in the pre-pandemic period, and 326/2746 (245 E/1000PY, 95% CI: 220-274 E/1000PY) in the pandemic period (crude HR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22-1.66; adjusted HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.07-1.46). The two sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses consistently supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed an increased colorectal cancer mortality during the pandemic period, suggesting a continuous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the known and unknown risk factors for colorectal cancer for several years. Further studies are necessary to mitigate the adverse effects on patient outcomes.

Increased care-need in older long-term care insurance users after the 2018 Japan Floods: a retrospective cohort study based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims.

BACKGROUND: Level of care-need (LOC) is an indicator of elderly person's disability level and is officially used to determine the care services provided in Japan's long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. The 2018 Japan Floods, which struck western Japan in July 2018, were the country's second largest water disaster. This study determined the extent to which the disaster affected the LOC of victims and compared it with that of non-victims. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study, based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims from two months before (May 2018) to five months after the disaster (December 2018) in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures, which were the most severely damaged areas in the country. A code indicating victim status, certified by a residential municipality, was used to distinguish between victims and non-victims. Those aged 64 years or younger, those who had the most severe LOC before the disaster, and those whose LOC increased even before the disaster were excluded. The primary endpoint was the augmentation of pre-disaster LOC after the disaster, which was evaluated using the survival time analysis. Age, gender, and type of care service were used as covariates. RESULTS: Of the total 193,723 participants, 1,407 (0.7%) were certified disaster victims. Five months after the disaster, 135 (9.6%) of victims and 14,817 (7.7%) of non-victims experienced the rise of LOC. The victim group was significantly more likely to experience an augmentation of LOC than the non-victim group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Older people who were affected by the disaster needed more care than before and the degree of care-need increase was substantially more than non-victims. The result suggests that natural disasters generate more demand for care services among the older people, and incur more resources and cost for society than before.

Heat Exposure Following the Rainy Season Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Cardiovascular Emergency Among the Elderly in Japan.

Background Despite the impact of heat exposure caused by global warming, few studies have investigated the hourly effects of heat exposure and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the elderly. We examined the associations between short-term heat exposure and the risk of CVD in the elderly in Japan and evaluated possible effect-measure modifications by rainy seasons that occur in East Asia. Methods and Results We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study. The study included 6527 residents in Okayama City, Japan, aged ≥65 years who were transported to emergency hospitals between 2012 and 2019 for the onset of CVD during and a few months after the rainy seasons. We examined the linear associations between temperature and CVD-related emergency calls for each year and for hourly preceding intervals before the emergency call during the most relevant months. Heat exposure during 1 month after the end of the rainy season was associated with CVD risk; the odds ratio (OR) for a 1° C increase in temperature was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.29-1.40). When we further explored the nonlinear association by using the natural cubic spline model, we found a J-shaped relationship. Exposures 0 to 6 hours before the case event (preceding intervals 0-6 hours) were associated with CVD risk, particularly for the preceding interval 0 to 1 hour (OR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.28-1.39]). For longer periods, the highest risk was at preceding intervals 0 to 23 hours (OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.34-1.46]). Conclusions Elderly individuals may be more susceptible to CVD after heat exposure during the month after the rainy season. As shown by finer temporal resolution analyses, short-term exposure to increasing temperature can trigger CVD onset.

Effects of 2018 Japan floods on healthcare costs and service utilization in Japan: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Floods and torrential rains are natural disasters caused by climate change. Unfortunately, such events are more frequent and are increasingly severe in recent times. The 2018 Japan Floods in western Japan were one of the largest such disasters. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on healthcare costs and service utilization. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all patients whose receipts accrued between July 2017 and June 2019 in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to investigate yearly healthcare costs during the pre-and post-disaster periods, quarterly high-cost patients (top 10%), and service utilization (outpatient care, inpatient care, and dispensing pharmacy) during the post-disaster period. After the GEEs, we estimated the average marginal effects as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 5,534,276. Victims accounted for 0.65% of the total number of participants (n = 36,032). Although there was no significant difference in pre-disaster healthcare costs (p = 0.63), post-disaster costs were $3,382 (95% CI: 3,254-3,510) for victims and $3,027 (95% CI: 3,015-3,038) for non-victims (p < 0.001). The highest risk difference among high-cost patients was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.6-1.1) in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the highest risk difference of service utilization was in the first quarter (outpatient care: 7.0% (95% CI: 6.7-7.4), inpatient care: 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1-1.5), and dispensing pharmacy: 5.9% (95% CI: 5.5-6.4)). CONCLUSION: Victims of the 2018 Japan Floods had higher medical costs and used more healthcare services than non-victims. In addition, the risk of higher medical costs was highest at the end of the observation period. It is necessary to estimate the increase in healthcare costs according to the disaster scale and plan for appropriate post-disaster healthcare service delivery.

How the 2018 Japan Floods Impacted Nursing Home Admissions for Older Persons: A Longitudinal Study Using the Long-Term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

OBJECTIVES: As disasters become more frequent because of global warming, countries across the world are seeking ways to protect vulnerable older populations. Although these conditions may increase nursing home admission (NHA) rates for older persons, we know of no studies that have directly tested this hypothesis. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed data from long-term care insurance (LTCI) users in 3 Japanese prefectures that incurred heavy damage from the 2018 Japan Floods, which is the largest recorded flooding disaster in national history. Specifically, we extracted NHA data from the LTCI comprehensive database, both for disaster-affected and unaffected individuals. METHODS: We employed the Cox proportional hazards model to calculate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NHAs within a 6-month period following the 2018 Japan Floods, with adjustments for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Of the 187,861 individuals who used LTCI services during the investigated period, we identified 2156 (1.1%) as disaster affected. The HR for NHA was significantly higher for disaster-affected (vs unaffected) individuals (adjusted HR 3.23: 95% CI 2.88‒3.64), and also higher than the HRs for older age (90-94 years vs 65-69 years: 2.29, CI 1.93‒2.70), cognitive impairment (severe impairment vs normal: 1.40, CI 1.25‒1.57), and physical function (bedridden vs independent: 2.27, CI 1.83‒2.70). According to our subgroup analyses, the adjusted HR for disaster-affected individuals unable to feed themselves was 6.00 (CI 3.68‒9.79), with a significant interaction between the 2 variables (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Natural disasters increase the risk of NHA for older persons, especially those who are unable to feed themselves. Health care providers and policymakers should understand and prepare for this emerging risk factor.

Geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA: a cross-sectional comparative study.

INTRODUCTION: Solutions for geographic maldistribution of physicians is challenging around the world, but primary care specialists are expected to resolve this issue. This study compares the geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA, both of which are developed countries without a major system for physician allocation by the public sector; however, the two countries differ greatly in the maturity of family medicine (ie length of its history as part of the healthcare system and the population of qualified family medicine experts). METHODS: This cross-sectional comparative study used publicly available online databases for Japan in 2018 and 2017 in the USA. The municipalities in Japan and counties in the USA were divided into quintile groups according to population density. The number of family physicians per unit population in each group of areas was calculated, and was evaluated with a residual analysis. The geographic distribution of all physicians in Japan was simulated assuming that the proportion of family physicians among all physicians in Japan (0.16%) was increased to match that in the USA (11.8%). RESULTS: Of 320 084 physicians in Japan and 899 244 in the USA, 519 (77.2%) family physicians in Japan and 105 999 (100%) in the USA were included. The distribution of family physicians in Japan was noticeably shifted to areas with the lowest population density. In contrast, family physicians in the USA were distributed equally across areas. The distribution of physicians of other specialties (general internists, pediatricians, surgeons and obstetricians/gynecologists) was shifted heavily to areas with the highest population densities in both countries. The simulation analysis showed the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians improved substantially if the proportion of family physicians in Japan is increased to match that in the USA. CONCLUSION: The distribution of family physicians is more equitable than that of other medical specialists; however, an immature family medicine system can lead to an aggregation of family physicians in rural areas. This aggregation supports equity due to the broader scope of practice required by family physicians in rural areas. In countries where family medicine has not yet matured as a specialty, provided that the equitable aggregation of family physicians in rural areas can be maintained, increasing the number of family physicians as a proportion of the total number of physicians may improve the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians.

Increased prescriptions for irritable bowel syndrome after the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal analysis based on the Japanese National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups.

BACKGROUND: The frequency and intensity of natural disasters are increasing worldwide, which makes our understanding of disaster-related diseases more important than ever. Natural disasters cause mental stress and infectious diarrhea, but the causal relationship between disasters and a potential consequence of these conditions, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), is unreported. The 2018 Japan Floods, which took place in July 2018 was one of the largest water disasters in Japan's recorded history. We investigate the change of drug prescriptions for IBS between disaster-suffers and non-sufferers throughout the disaster period to examine the relationship. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study based on the Japanese National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups in flood-stricken areas between July 2017 and June 2019. We included subjects older than 15 years of age who had visited a medical institution or been hospitalized in the hardest-hit areas of the disaster. Ramosetron, polycarbophil calcium, and mepenzolate bromide (IBS drugs) approved solely for the treatment of IBS in Japan were analyzed. The monthly rate of prescriptions for IBS drugs was compared between municipality-certified disaster victims and non-victims using a controlled interrupted time series analysis. For those who were not prescribed IBS drugs before the disaster (non-users), the occurrence of an IBS drug prescription after the disaster was evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for gender and age. RESULTS: Of 5,287,888 people enrolled, 32,499 (0.61%) were certified victims. The prescription rate for IBS drugs among victims increased significantly by 128% immediately after the disaster, while it was stable among non-victims. The trend for the post-disaster prescription rate among victims moved upward significantly when compared to non-victims (0.01% per month; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.004-0.015; P = 0.001). Among non-users, the occurrence of an IBS drug prescription for victims was 0.71% and was significantly higher than non-victims (0.35%, adjusted odds ratio 2.05; 95% CI 1.81-2.32). CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods increased the rate of prescriptions for IBS drugs, suggesting that the disaster caused or worsened IBS among victims.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on prescriptions for migraine: A longitudinal analysis using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of the 2018 Japan Floods, one of the largest water disasters in Japan, on the number of prescriptions for triptans and ergotamine (acute treatment). BACKGROUND: Natural disasters frequently occur worldwide and may cause psychological stress-related diseases. Acute migraine attacks can be triggered by psychological stress. Disaster victims are likely to experience tremendous psychological stress; however, the relationship between natural disasters and migraine attacks is not well investigated. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims in the hardest-hit areas of the disaster 1 year before and after the disaster. We included people between the ages of 15 and 64 years. Those who had a victim code that was certificated by a local government were assigned to the victim group, and others to the nonvictim group. For those who were not prescribed acute treatment before the disaster (i.e., group without previous acute treatment), the cumulative incidence of new prescriptions for acute treatment at 12 months of follow-up was calculated and compared between victims and nonvictims with survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 3,475,515 people aged 15 to 64 years enrolled in the study, 16,103 (0.46%) were assigned to the victim group. In the group without previous acute treatment, 111 (0.70%) of 15,933 victims and 14,626 (0.43%) of 3,431,423 nonvictims were newly prescribed acute treatment after the disaster, and new prescriptions for acute treatment were significantly more likely to occur in victims than in nonvictims (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.39-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods increased the number of prescriptions for acute migraine medications among victims, suggesting that acute migraine attacks occurred more frequently after a natural disaster.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on benzodiazepine use: a longitudinal analysis based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

PURPOSE: Natural disaster has an impact on mental health. The 2018 Japan Floods, which took place in July 2018 were one of the largest water disasters in Japan's recorded history. We aimed to evaluate the change in the number of benzodiazepine prescriptions by physicians before and after the disaster. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims was conducted in the flood-stricken areas between July 2017 and June 2019. The subjects were divided between victims and non-victims according to certification by local governments. Members of both groups were then categorized into three groups based on their pre-flood use of benzodiazepines: non-user, occasional user, and continuous user. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis with a logistic regression model was conducted to estimate the effect of the disaster among victims by comparing the occurrence of benzodiazepine prescriptions before and after the disaster. RESULTS: Of 5,000,129 people enrolled, 31,235 were victims. Among all participants, the mean prescription rate for benzodiazepines in victims before the disaster (11.3%) increased to 11.8% after the disaster, while that in non-victims (8.3%) decreased to 7.9%. The DID analysis revealed that benzodiazepine prescription among victims significantly increased immediately after the disaster (adjusted ratio of odds ratios (ROR) 1.07: 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.11), and the effect of the disaster persisted even 1 year after the disaster (adjusted ROR 1.2: 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.24). CONCLUSION: The flood increased the number of benzodiazepines prescriptions among victims, and the effect persisted for at least 1 year.

Long-term exposure to fine particle matter and all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in Japan: the JPHC Study.

BACKGROUND: Many epidemiological studies have reported the association between exposure to particulate matter and mortality, but long-term prospective studies from Asian populations are sparse. Furthermore, associations at low levels of air pollution are not well clarified. Here, we evaluated associations between long-term exposure to particulate matter <2.5 µg/m3 (PM2.5) and mortality in a Japanese cohort with a relatively low exposure level. METHODS: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC Study) is a prospective cohort study of men and women aged 40-69 years in 1990 who were followed up through 2013 for mortality. In this cohort of 87,385 subjects who did not move residence during follow-up, average PM2.5 levels from 1998 to 2013 by linkage with 1-km2 grids of PM2.5 concentration were assigned to the residential addresses of all participants. To avoid exposure misclassification, we additionally evaluated the association between 5-year (1998-2002) cumulative exposure level and mortality during the follow-up period from 2003 to 2013 in 79,078 subjects. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the association of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality, with adjustment for several individual confounding factors. RESULTS: Average PM2.5 was 11.6 µg/m3. Average PM2.5 exposure was not associated with all-cause mortality or cancer and respiratory disease mortality. However, average PM2.5 was positively associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio (HR) of 1.23 (95%CI=1.08-1.40) per 1-µg/m3 increase; in particular, HR in mortality from cerebrovascular disease was 1.34 (95%CI=1.11-1.61) per 1-µg/m3 increase. Additionally, these results using cumulative 5-year PM2.5 data were similar to those using average PM2.5 over 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence for a positive association between PM2.5 exposure and mortality from cardiovascular disease in a Japanese population, even in an area with relatively low-level air pollution.

Discontinuation of long-term care among persons affected by the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal study using the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

BACKGROUND: Most older people with disabilities or illnesses continue to use long-term care (LTC) services for the rest of their lives. However, disasters can cause a discontinuation of LTC services, which usually means tragic outcomes of affected persons. In view of the recent progression of population aging and the increase in natural disasters, this study focuses on the impact of disasters on older people's discontinuation of LTC services, and those more risk of such discontinuation than others. However, current evidence is scarce. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 259,081 subjects, 2,762 of whom had been affected by disaster and 256,319 who had not been affected during the 2018 Japan Floods. The sample in the three most disaster-affected prefectures was drawn from the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database and included older people certified with care-need level. The observation period was two months before the disaster and five months after it. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of municipality-certified subjects affected by the disaster versus those who were not. Subgroup analyses were conducted for categories of individual-, facility- and region-associated factors. RESULTS: Affected persons were twice as likely to discontinue LTC services than those who were not affected (adjusted HR, 2.06 95% CI, 1.91-2.23). 34% of affected persons whose facilities were closed discontinued their LTC services at five months after the disaster. A subgroup analysis showed that the risk of discontinuing LTC services for affected persons compared to those who were not affected in the relatively younger subgroup (age < 80: adjusted HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.20-2.96 vs. age ≥ 80 : 1.91; 1.75-2.10), and the subgroup requiring a lower level of care (low: 3.16; 2.74-3.66 vs. high: 1.71; 1.50-1.96) were more likely to discontinue than the older and higher care level subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: A natural disaster has a significant effect on the older people's discontinuation of LTC services. The discontinuations are supposedly caused by affected persons' death, hospitalization, forced relocation of individuals, or the service provider's incapacity. Accordingly, it is important to recognize the risk of disasters and take measures to avoid discontinuation to protect older persons' quality of life.

Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization. METHODS: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services.

The 2018 Japan Floods Increased Prescriptions of Antidementia Drugs Among Disaster Victims.

OBJECTIVES: Natural disasters can impair the cognitive function of older victims. However, it is unknown whether such natural disasters affect drug treatment for dementia. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods, the second largest water-related disaster in Japan, on the prescriptions of antidementia drugs (ADD) for older people (≥65 years of age). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Prescription data in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures for 1 year before and after the disaster were extracted from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. From the database, we selected 1,710,119 people age 65 years or over as the study participants. METHODS: In logistic regression models, sex- and age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of victims for new ADD prescriptions were calculated. Trends for the ORs before and after the disaster were evaluated using difference-in-difference models. Whether or not there was an increase in the trend for ADD prescriptions (daily dose or number of drug types) was also evaluated among continuous ADD users. RESULTS: Among 1,710,119 participants, 15,994 (0.9%) were recorded as a disaster-victims, and 112,289 (6.6%) were prescribed ADD. Among original nonusers, after the disaster, victims were more likely to start using ADD than nonvictims who had not been affected [adjusted OR = 1.33 (95% CI 1.16-1.52)]. Among continuous users, an increasing trend for ADD prescriptions was more often observed for victims than nonvictims [1.61 (1.13-2.31)]. This effect was robust even after the predisaster trend of ADD use was taken into consideration. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The disaster increased the number of users of antidementia medications. The findings suggest the need for evidence-based recommendations to address cognitive impairment among disaster victims, which is lacking in current clinical and disaster guidelines worldwide.

The effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on cognitive decline among long-term care insurance users in Japan: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The July 2018 Japan Floods caused enormous damage to western Japan. Such disasters can especially impact elderly persons. Research has shown that natural disasters exacerbated a decline in cognitive function, but to date, there have been no studies examining the effects of this disaster on the elderly. The object of this study was to reveal the effect of this disaster in terms of cognitive decline among the elderly. METHODS: Study participants were certified users of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures from May 2018 to June 2018. The observation period was from July 2018 to December 2018. Our primary outcome was cognitive decline after the disaster using a dementia symptomatology assessment. In addition to a crude model, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the cognitive decline of victims, adjusting for age classification, gender, the level of dementia scale before the disaster occurred, residential environment, whether a participant used facilities shut down after the disaster, and population density. After we confirmed that the interaction term between victims and residential environment was statistically significant, we stratified them for the analysis. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 264,614. Victims accounted for 1.10% of the total participants (n = 2,908). For the Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the victims was 1.18 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.05-1.32) in the crude model and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.26) in the adjusted model. After being stratified by residential environment, the hazard ratio of home victims was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06-1.36) and the hazard ratio of facility victims was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.67-1.17). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that elderly living at home during the 2018 Japan Floods were at risk for cognitive decline. Medical providers, care providers, and local governments should establish a system to check on the cognitive function of elderly victims and provide necessary care support.

Effects of transport-related COVID-19 policy measures: A case study of six developed countries.

This study attempts to provide scientifically-sound evidence for designing more effective COVID-19 policies in the transport and public health sectors by comparing 418 policy measures (244 are transport measures) taken in different months of 2020 in Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, the UK, and the US. The effectiveness of each policy is measured using nine indicators of infections and mobilities corresponding to three periods (i.e., one week, two weeks, and one month) before and after policy implementation. All policy measures are categorized based on the PASS approach (P: prepare-protect-provide; A: avoid-adjust; S: shift-share; S: substitute-stop). First, policy effectiveness is compared between policies, between countries, and over time. Second, a dynamic Bayesian multilevel generalized structural equation model is developed to represent dynamic cause-effect relationships between policymaking, its influencing factors and its consequences, within a unified research framework. Third, major policy measures in the six countries are compared. Finally, findings for policymakers are summarized and extensively discussed.

Effects of dairy intake on anthropometric failure in children ages 6 to 23 mo consuming vegetarian diets and fulfilling minimum dietary diversity in India.

OBJECTIVES: In India, although nutritional conditions have improved, a high prevalence of anthropometric failure is still reported in children. Unfortunately, there are knowledge gaps surrounding nutrient and anthropometric shortcomings as well as dietary patterns. More than half of children are consuming a vegetarian diet. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of dietary adequacy levels on anthropometric failure in 5772 vegetarian children (ages 6-23 mo) satisfying minimum dietary diversity. METHODS: Data were collected from the National Family Health Survey 2015-16. We created three food combinations: maximum adequacy (dairy and four food groups), medium adequacy (dairy and three food groups), and minimum adequacy (four food groups excluding dairy). We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the association between dietary adequacy levels and anthropometric failures with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using logistic regression models. The modification effect of breastfeeding status was also explored. RESULTS: Approximately 35% of children had stunted growth. ORs showed a significant increase in the risk of anthropometric failure, notably wasting, and underweight in children with minimum-adequacy diets (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.15-1.86) compared with children with maximum-adequacy diets. Those associations were more pronounced among children who were not breastfed (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.19-5.00) than among children who were (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.04-1.74; P value for the interaction = 0.07). Similar associations were observed for wasting among children who were not breastfed (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.34-5.95) and who were breastfed(OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.85-1.5; P value for the interaction = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Dairy is an essential source of nutrients that are required for healthy growth and development in children younger than 2 y, even if they satisfy minimum dietary diversity conditions in India.

Education policies to increase rural physicians in Japan: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Japan has established comprehensive education-scholarship programs to supply physicians in rural areas. Their entrants now comprise 16% of all medical students, and graduates must work in rural areas for a designated number of years. These programs are now being adopted outside Japan, but their medium-term outcomes and inter-program differences are unknown. METHODS: A nationwide prospective cohort study of newly licensed physicians 2014-2018 (n = 2454) of the four major types of the programs-Jichi Medical University (Jichi); regional quota with scholarship; non-quota with scholarship (scholarship alone); and quota without scholarship (quota alone)-and all Japanese physicians in the same postgraduate year (n = 40,293) was conducted with follow-up workplace information from the Physician Census 2018, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. In addition, annual cross-sectional survey for prefectural governments and medical schools 2014-2019 was conducted to obtain information on the results of National Physician License Examination and retention status for contractual workforce. RESULTS: Passing rate of the National Physician License Examination was highest in Jichi, followed in descending order by quota with scholarship, the other two programs, and all medical graduates. The retention rate for contractual rural service of Jichi graduates 5 years after graduation (n = 683; 98%) was higher than that of quota with scholarship (2868; 90%; P < 0.001) and scholarship alone (2220; 81% < 0.001). Relative risks of working in municipalities with the least population density quintile in Jichi, quota with scholarship, scholarship alone, and quota alone in postgraduate year 5 were 4.0 (95% CI 3.7-4.4; P < 0.001), 3.1 (2.6-3.7; < 0.001), 2.5 (2.1-3.0; < 0.001), and 2.5 (1.9-3.3; < 0.001) as compared with all Japanese physicians. There was no significant difference between each program and all physicians in the proportion of those who specialized in internal medicine or general practice in postgraduate years 3 to 5 CONCLUSIONS: Japan's education policies to produce rural physicians are effective but the degree of effectiveness varies among the programs. Policymakers and medical educators should plan their future rural workforce policies with reference to the effectiveness and variations of these programs.

Low creatinine levels in diabetes mellitus among older individuals: the Yuport Medical Checkup Center Study.

ORIC ID: 0000-0002-3401-8191. It is unknown whether the interrelationship between diabetes and muscle loss is affected by ageing. Therefore, the serum creatinine levels, an indicator of muscle mass, were compared between older people with diabetes and those without diabetes, using a cross-sectional dataset from the Yuport Medical Checkup Center Study. We classified 6133 participants without kidney dysfunction into three age-groups: early-elderly (65-69 years), middle-elderly (70-74 years), and late-elderly (≥ 75 years). The association between diabetes and the lowest creatinine level, defined as less than or equal to the 25 percentile of serum creatinine, was evaluated in each age group, by calculating the odds ratio (OR) using logistic regression. Serum creatinine levels increased with ageing in the participants, and these trends were markedly observed in the non-diabetic group. Late-elderly people with diabetes were significantly more likely to have low creatinine levels than those without diabetes, with adjusted ORs 2.50 (95% CI 1.99-4.50) in men and 2.88 (95% CI 1.47-5.64) in women. Ageing modified the effect of their diabetes status towards a lower creatinine level (p for interactions between the diabetic status and age-groups were 0.01 in men and 0.05 in women, respectively). Ageing may thus accelerate the loss of muscle mass in people with diabetes.